Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds 709,715 BTC with $8.2 billion in debt. The theoretical liquidation price is ~$16,500 per BTC. Real risks include mNAV collapse (currently near 1.0x), debt rollovers in 2027-2029, and potential MSCI index exclusion. Historical precedent shows markets have absorbed large forced sales (GBTC, Mt. Gox). Full bankruptcy is unlikely in 2026, but not impossible.
Strategy holds roughly 3% of all Bitcoin ever mined.
With $8.2 billion in convertible debt and an mNAV premium that has collapsed to near 1.0x, the question is no longer if Michael Saylor’s leveraged Bitcoin bet will be tested, but when.
Here’s what actually happens if the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder fails.
Key Takeaways
| Risk Factor | Current Status (Jan 2026) | Threat Level |
|---|---|---|
| BTC Holdings | 709,715 BTC | N/A |
| Total Debt | $8.2 billion | High |
| mNAV Premium | ~0.97x (below NAV) | Critical |
| First Debt Maturity | September 2028 | Medium |
| Theoretical Liquidation Price | ~$16,500 BTC | Low (distant) |
The Current Situation
As of January 20, 2026, Strategy holds 709,715 BTC acquired for approximately $54 billion at an average cost of ~$75,353 per bitcoin.
The Debt Structure
Strategy has $8.2 billion in convertible notes with a weighted average interest rate of just 0.421%. Most of this debt carries 0% interest because investors accept equity conversion rights instead.
| Maturity Date | Principal | Interest Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sept 2028 | $604M | 0.625% |
| Dec 2029 | $3,000M | 0.0% |
| Mar 2030 | $2,800M | 0.0-0.625% |
| Mar 2031 | $800M | 0.875% |
| Jun 2032 | $1,010M | 2.250% |
Source: VanEck Analysis
The key point: no major debt is due until 2028. This gives Strategy a multi-year runway regardless of Bitcoin price fluctuations.
What Could Actually Cause a Collapse?
Risk 1: The mNAV Flywheel Reverses
Strategy’s entire accumulation model depends on issuing stock at a premium to NAV. When mNAV is above 1.0x, selling shares and buying Bitcoin is accretive for existing shareholders.
The problem: Strategy’s mNAV has collapsed to approximately 0.97x—the lowest level since March 2023.
With mNAV below 1.0x:
- ATM (at-the-market) stock sales destroy shareholder value
- The “Saylor Flywheel” stops working
- New BTC accumulation becomes dilutive rather than accretive
This doesn’t cause bankruptcy, but it removes Strategy’s primary tool for growing its Bitcoin position.
Risk 2: Debt Rollover Failure (2027-2029)
The first major debt maturity is in 2028. If Bitcoin crashes and stays low, creditors may refuse to roll over the notes at favorable terms.
According to Advisor Perspectives, Strategy may need to refinance at higher rates or sell Bitcoin to repay principal.
Risk 3: MSCI Index Exclusion
MSCI is consulting on removing companies whose digital assets exceed 50% of total assets. If Strategy is excluded from major indices, JPMorgan estimates $8.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows.
This creates a feedback loop: forced selling pushes the stock down, which pushes mNAV lower, which makes future capital raises harder.
Common Misconceptions
“There’s a margin call at $75K”
False. Strategy’s convertible notes are not collateralized by Bitcoin. The Silvergate loan that was Bitcoin-collateralized was repaid in March 2023.
“Saylor could be forced to sell tomorrow”
False. Michael Saylor controls 46.8% of voting power through Class B shares. Any Bitcoin sale would require board approval. With no debt due until 2028, there is no mechanism forcing an immediate sale.
“Strategy is just like FTX”
False. Unlike FTX, Strategy’s holdings and debt are publicly disclosed, audited, and filed with the SEC. There is no hidden leverage or customer funds at risk.
What’s the Actual Liquidation Price?
According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Strategy’s theoretical liquidation price is approximately $16,500 per Bitcoin.
The calculation: $8.2 billion debt / 709,715 BTC = ~$11,500. Adding operational costs and buffer = ~$16,500.
At current prices (~$105,000), Bitcoin would need to fall 84% to approach this level. For context, Bitcoin’s largest historical drawdown was 83% (2013-2015).
What Happens if Strategy Liquidates?
Market Impact Scenarios
| Scenario | BTC Sold | % of Holdings | Est. Price Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover annual obligations | ~2,300 BTC | 0.3% | Minimal |
| Partial liquidation | ~100,000 BTC | 14% | 15-25% drop |
| Full bankruptcy | 709,715 BTC | 100% | 40-60% crash |
Historical Precedent: How Markets Absorbed Large Sales
| Event | BTC Value Sold | Timeframe | Market Impact | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayscale GBTC (2024) | ~$15B | 3 months | -20% initially | 6 weeks |
| Mt. Gox + Germany (2024) | ~$16B | 1 month | -11% | 2 months |
| FTX Estate GBTC | ~$1B | 3 days | Absorbed by ETF inflows | Immediate |
The key insight: Bitcoin’s liquidity has matured significantly. The 2024 GBTC outflows of approximately 300,000 BTC were fully offset by new ETF inflows. Markets absorbed large forced sales within months.
The Bear Case
Not everyone believes Strategy survives.
Schiff argues that Strategy’s model is unsustainable because:
- The company has no operating income to pay obligations
- Preferred stock dividends require selling more shares (dilution spiral)
- Eventually creditors will lose confidence
The Bull Case
Strategy defenders point to:
- No debt until 2028: Multi-year runway regardless of price
- Software business: Generates ~$475M annually to cover obligations
- Proven resilience: Saylor navigated the 2022 bear market (80% drawdown) without selling
- Saylor’s conviction: He has stated he would buy more at any price
Probability Assessment
| Scenario | Probability (2026) | Probability (2027-2029) |
|---|---|---|
| Full bankruptcy | <5% | 10-15% |
| Forced partial sale | <10% | 15-25% |
| mNAV stays below 1.0x | 40% | Depends on BTC price |
| Debt rollover issues | N/A | 20-30% if BTC weak |
Note: These are rough estimates based on public analysis, not financial advice.
The Bottom Line
Strategy is not a time bomb about to explode. It’s a highly leveraged bet that requires Bitcoin to not crash 84%+ and stay there through 2028.
The real risks are: 1. mNAV compression making future accumulation impossible 2. Debt rollover failure in 2027-2029 if Bitcoin is weak 3. Index exclusion triggering forced selling from passive funds
For Bitcoin itself, Strategy represents the largest single-entity concentration risk in the asset’s history. But markets have proven capable of absorbing large forced sales. The 2024 GBTC/Mt. Gox selling was absorbed in months.
The bottom line: Strategy failing would be painful for Bitcoin price in the short term. It would not be fatal for the network or the asset class.
Further Reading
- MicroStrategy vs Metaplanet: Two Bitcoin Treasury Strategies Compared
- Bitcoin Treasury Accounting in 2025: FASB Rules
- Corporate Bitcoin Custody Solutions Comparison
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